Book · How to decide
Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner · 2015
What research on forecasting tournaments found about who predicts well, and the habits that turn out to distinguish them.
Why it is here
Where Kahneman diagnoses and Taleb warns, this book attempts something more constructive: identifying what the people who forecast measurably better than average actually do. The answers are unglamorous — break questions into parts, start from base rates, update in small increments, keep score.
The keeping-score element is the one most worth importing. Angel investing gives feedback so slowly that almost nobody records what they believed at the time, which means almost nobody can learn from being wrong. Writing down your thesis and your expected outcome at the point of investing is the cheapest improvement available.
It is also a useful antidote to the confident forecasting that fills the podcasts on our listening list. The best forecasters are notably tentative, and the correlation between confidence and accuracy is not the one you would hope for.
Read it if
You want to get measurably better at judgement rather than just aware of its limits.
Skip it if
You will not actually keep records — the central recommendation requires the work.